Opinion polls don't get much more sensational than today's YouGov poll in Scotland on Sunday. It suggests that the SNP's lead over Labour has bumped from 2% to 13% in the constituency vote in only a week. This is quite astonishing, and indicates that the Ipsos/Mori poll last week. which showed Alex Salmond's party surging ahead by 11% over Labour, was no rogue. On the regional list vote, the SNP lead has also rocketed from 2% to 10% according to YouGov. These really are epic numbers. I can't think of any British election in modern times where there has been such a dramatic turnaround in the course of an election campaign, let alone in only ten days. Labour had been ten points ahead of the SNP in the poll of polls for most of the last year.
Perhaps, indeed, it is too good to be true. Scotland on Sunday seemed to be a little wary of its own poll and rather downplayed the story, confining it to a brief side bar on page one. There has been a stunned silence from most of the political parties, and even the SNP are advising caution. The Nationalists believe that their actual lead is much less than the recent polls have been indicating, and they are starting to worry about complacency among party worker ten days before polling day.
Certainly, all polls are subject to sampling peculiarities and can often exaggerate small movements in opinion. Just think back to the general election in May 2010 when the Liberal Democrats forged ahead of Labour after Nick Clegg's TV outing. Polls should always be taken, but not inhaled. But I think there's every indication that the polls on voting intentions are simply reflecting the long held view of the Scottish voters that Alex Salmond is the best choice as First Minister. His personal ratings have hardly changed in four years. Iain Gray was never a runner in the leadership race, and since there is very little in terms of policy to differentiate the two parties, it is hardly surprising that the national polls are now swinging to the SNP. Certainly, Labour have offered no compelling reason why Scots should change horses in Bute House. This is one of the most sophisticated electorates in the world, long experienced in the arts of tactical voting. Scottish voters have no difficulty, splitting their ticket, and voting Labour in Westminster while backing the SNP in Holyrood.
Certainly, all polls are subject to sampling peculiarities and can often exaggerate small movements in opinion. Just think back to the general election in May 2010 when the Liberal Democrats forged ahead of Labour after Nick Clegg's TV outing. Polls should always be taken, but not inhaled. But I think there's every indication that the polls on voting intentions are simply reflecting the long held view of the Scottish voters that Alex Salmond is the best choice as First Minister. His personal ratings have hardly changed in four years. Iain Gray was never a runner in the leadership race, and since there is very little in terms of policy to differentiate the two parties, it is hardly surprising that the national polls are now swinging to the SNP. Certainly, Labour have offered no compelling reason why Scots should change horses in Bute House. This is one of the most sophisticated electorates in the world, long experienced in the arts of tactical voting. Scottish voters have no difficulty, splitting their ticket, and voting Labour in Westminster while backing the SNP in Holyrood.
