Even the SNP don't believe their polling numbers.

     Opinion polls don't get much more sensational than today's  YouGov poll in Scotland on Sunday.  It suggests that the SNP's lead over Labour has bumped from 2% to 13% in the constituency vote in only a week.  This is quite astonishing, and indicates that the Ipsos/Mori poll last week. which showed Alex Salmond's party surging ahead by 11% over Labour,  was no rogue.  On the regional list vote, the SNP lead has also rocketed from 2% to 10% according to YouGov.   These really are epic numbers.  I can't think of any British election in modern times where there has been such a dramatic turnaround in the course of an election campaign, let alone in only ten days.  Labour had been ten points ahead of the SNP in the poll of polls for most of the last year.  

   Perhaps, indeed, it is too good to be true.  Scotland on Sunday seemed to be a little wary of its own poll and rather downplayed the story, confining it to a brief side bar on page one.   There has been a stunned silence from most of the political parties, and even the SNP are advising caution.  The Nationalists believe that their actual lead is much less than the recent polls have been indicating, and they are starting to worry about complacency among party worker ten days before polling day.


     Certainly, all polls are subject to sampling peculiarities and can often exaggerate small movements in opinion.  Just think back to the general election in May 2010 when the Liberal Democrats forged ahead of Labour after Nick Clegg's TV outing.  Polls should always be taken, but not inhaled.  But I think there's every indication that the polls on voting intentions are simply reflecting the long held view of the Scottish voters that Alex Salmond is the best choice as First Minister.  His personal ratings have hardly changed in four years.  Iain Gray was never a runner in the leadership race, and since there is very little in terms of policy to differentiate the two parties, it is hardly surprising that the national polls  are now swinging to the SNP.  Certainly,   Labour have offered no compelling reason why Scots should change horses in Bute House.   This is one of the most sophisticated electorates in the world, long experienced in the arts of tactical voting.  Scottish voters have no difficulty, splitting their ticket, and  voting Labour in Westminster while backing the SNP in Holyrood.

   Of course, it isn't over till the votes are counted on May 6th. and a lot can still happen.  This campaign is going into cold storage while the nation enjoys a run of bank holidays and celebrates, if that’s the right word, the royal wedding. After May Day, we will have a reprise - a shortened version of the campaign we’ve just had. Iain Gray has a second chance to get it right.  However, I  doubt if the result is going to be very different. Labour’s attempt to present this as a campaign against the Conservatives - “the Tories are back” -  has failed. After pinching so many of the SNP’s policies -  on tuition fees, council tax, accident and emergency closures -Labour  had difficulty defining what is distinctive about their own agenda, sometimes sounding like the Knife Crime Party.   Unable to engage on policy, Labour were left fighting a personality battle which, against Alex Salmond, Iain Gray was always bound to lose.  

    So, enough of Labour. What of the SNP? Well, if they manage to hold things together until polling day, it really will be a historic moment,  and not just for Scotland but for the UK.   We can start pencilling in likely dates for that independence referendum for a start.   There has been much speculation that Alex Salmond will opt to carry on alone as a minority administration, and not seek a coalition with another party. It worked well enough after 2007.   But if he is serious about holding that independence referendum, it seems to me that Salmond has little choice but to look for a partnership, otherwise he won’t get the referendum bill through the parliament.   Fanciful talk of the SNP getting an overall majority - ie sixty five seats or more -  is just that: fantasy.  Holyrood is a parliament of minorities, and the only way to guarantee that a legislative programme is implemented in its entirety is to strike a deal with another party or parties.

    Salmond’s first port of call has to be the Scottish Liberal Democrats,  despite their unfortunate association with the Tories in Westminster.  The LibDems share many policies with the SNP, like free higher education, opposition to nuclear power, local income tax, fiscal autonomy.   In 2007, they refused to discuss coalition with the SNP unless Alex Salmond dropped the referendum, but the Liberal Democrat leader, Tavish Scott has now removed this roadblock.   Desperate for a return to power, the Liberal Democrats will not demand much in return.  And I believe the SNP will be able to do a deal on Scott’s flagship policy, de-mutualisation of Scottish Water. Glasgow University’s Centre For Public Policy in the Regions gave this policy the thumbs up last week in their assessment of the financial viability of the respective parties’ manifesto commitments.  Being ‘forced’ to accept £1.5bn from selling off Scottish Water might not be too difficult for John Swinney, who has a lot of expensive manifestos to pay for at a time of unprecedented cuts in his budget. 

   Of course, the way things are going, it’s possible that the Scottish  Liberal Democrats may lose so many seats that they cannot deliver a stable majority when combined with the SNP.  Then it might then come down to a rainbow coalition involving the Greens, who of course already support a referendum on independence.  They seem to have moderated their “red line” on any coalition talks.  Previously, the Green leader, Patrick Harvie, had appeared rule out a coalition unless the SNP  (or Labour) agreed to use the Tartan Tax, the Scottish Parliament’s existing powers to raise the standard rate of income tax by 3p.  But last week, Mr Harvie said he would only refuse to enter a coalition that “makes cuts to Scottish services that worsen inequality”.   The Greens’ other red lines - opposition to nuclear power and rejection of university tuition fees are already SNP policy.  Of course, the SNP had a sort of coalition with the Greens after the 2007 election, on a “confidence and supply” basis, meaning that they agreed not vote Alex Salmond out of office.  That came to grief two years later when the Greens provoked a political crisis by withdrawing support from the SNP budget at the last minute. 

    The SNP leader, Alex Salmond, has only ruled out coalition with one party: the Scottish Tories. There’s a certain irony in this, since, had it not been for the Tories, Salmond would not have been installed as First Minister in the first place. Annabel Goldie saw a chance to have an impact on Scottish politics and agreed to abstain in the May 2007 vote that allowed Salmond to enter Bute House.  She would be after a better deal this time, but with fewer seats, her bargaining power is likely to be diminished. 

   There is one final possibility. Labour could offer to join with the SNP in a grand coalition against the “Condem cuts”. According to an Ipsos/Mori poll last week, 60% of Labour voters would accept a coalition with the SNP.  They’ve adopted most of the Nationalist policies already, so it wouldn’t be very difficult to agree a common agenda.  But that would require Iain Gray putting its money where its mouth is and agreeing to  a referendum on independence. Since the SNP would almost certainly lose, this might seem a risk worth taking, in exchange for  Gray becoming deputy First Minister.  But such is the tribal animosity between the two parties, this coalition seems about as likely as Rangers adopting the Irish tricolour. 

    And for their part, the SNP might decide that, when all things are considered,  they don’t really need that referendum after all.