This isn't an in out referendum on Europe, but an out out referendum. The PM says he will try to negotiate a new deal with Europe and put that to the people in a referendum. But he must know that the kind of package of repatriated powers that he is seeking, or rather his Tory backbenchers are seeking, is impossible because it would not be compatible with Britain's continued membership. Social and employment laws, business regulations, criminal justice and human rights. There's just no way that opt outs on all this will be acceptable to other member states.
So, what happens when he comes back from Brussels with an empty briefcase? He puts the agreement he can't get to the British people in a referendum? There wouldn't be anything to vote on. He would proposing that Britain rejects the proposals from the EU. There would be nothing to vote Yes for.
What Cameron has tried to do is neutralise the threat from UKIP. But in doing so he has effectively set Britain on a course which could only lead to departure from the European Union.
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Another thought - might the EU play the "we don't debate hypotheticals" card, as they have at certain stages of the independent Scotland in/out of EU debate? If so, where does that leave Cameron's strategy?
Yeah spose so after all he has only to win the next election that'll' be easy for him wont it
It will be easier for him now that he has removed the UKIP threat, and pandered to a 60% vote in England that hate the EU.
I don't think he's got it in the bag, after all he's done a lot of damage to a lot of people and he's roundly hated, even in England, but he's certainly done his electoral chances no harm at all.
His problem comes if he is re elected and has to carry out his threat, but, by that time he will be able to find excuses for putting the referendum off (economic meltdown, war, whatever,he can find something)and he'll still have had 10 years in Downing Street, which seems to be the target.
Perhaps Cameron's stance on the UK in Europe will help the EU to move more to the neoliberal right by way of 'compromise'. It suits the current technocratic impetus of the EU.
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