Things fall apart. The SNP has got the right question, but it isn't getting the right answers. The Nationalists have been on the defensive for the last six months over relatively obscure procedural issues about relations with Europe, currency union and the mechanics of transition to independence. The Yes for Scotland campaign has failed to make a significant impact. The momentum from the 2011 election landslide has largely spent and the Nationalists are turning into their old embattled and defensive selves. They need to think carefully now about how to combat all this and get off the back foot.
The problem is partly the sheer weight of the forces against them. Better Together have the UK Government, the three unionist parties in Westminster and Scotland, the UK Treasury and civil service and the Scottish and UK press on their side, plus fellow travellers like Jose Manuel Barroso, the President of the European Commission. The Nationalists have Alex Salmond and a few loose cannons.
On the morning when the Scottish government's fiscal commission reported that monetary union was a perfectly sensible option, a leading Scottish daily's front page read: "Legal experts in warning on independence". The press coverage of the referendum has been reduced to a kind of pro forma "..........in warning on independence" (subs to fill). This kind of thing infuriates the SNP who insist, rightly, that you can find legal experts who will say practically anything. They don't understand why the Scottish press is so hostile to independence. But the fact is that they are.
The SNP can't change the weather, so they will have to find ways to stop getting soaked. They have to stop being on the defensive. They need to be realistic about the climate of opinion among Scottish voters, and the difficulty of persuading a country that lacks confidence in itself to go it alone. That means working back to where the voters actually are, rather than where the SNP would want them to be. I means going back to the multi-option referendum Scottish voters sought but are being denied. The SNP needs to recreate, and lead the home rule coalition,just as Alex Salmond originally wanted.
This isn't going to be won by a brilliant campaign as in the 2011 Scottish parliamentary elections where the SNP came from ten points behind Labour to winning a landslide. A referendum is very different from a general election. It is for keeps - and that is scary.
The unionists press can always be relied upon to pour cold water on any suggestion that the Scots are capable of managing their own affairs. The howls of derision that greeted the Scottish government's document on the transition to independence, were entirely predictable too. And the criticism was not without some justification, since it did rather look as if Alex was going to create the universe in six days.
On the morning when the Scottish government's fiscal commission reported that monetary union was a perfectly sensible option, a leading Scottish daily's front page read: "Legal experts in warning on independence". The press coverage of the referendum has been reduced to a kind of pro forma "..........in warning on independence" (subs to fill). This kind of thing infuriates the SNP who insist, rightly, that you can find legal experts who will say practically anything. They don't understand why the Scottish press is so hostile to independence. But the fact is that they are.
The SNP can't change the weather, so they will have to find ways to stop getting soaked. They have to stop being on the defensive. They need to be realistic about the climate of opinion among Scottish voters, and the difficulty of persuading a country that lacks confidence in itself to go it alone. That means working back to where the voters actually are, rather than where the SNP would want them to be. I means going back to the multi-option referendum Scottish voters sought but are being denied. The SNP needs to recreate, and lead the home rule coalition,just as Alex Salmond originally wanted.
This isn't going to be won by a brilliant campaign as in the 2011 Scottish parliamentary elections where the SNP came from ten points behind Labour to winning a landslide. A referendum is very different from a general election. It is for keeps - and that is scary.
The unionists press can always be relied upon to pour cold water on any suggestion that the Scots are capable of managing their own affairs. The howls of derision that greeted the Scottish government's document on the transition to independence, were entirely predictable too. And the criticism was not without some justification, since it did rather look as if Alex was going to create the universe in six days.
The truth is that a the Nationalists themselves have only recently begun to think in practical terms about things like negotiating a constitution and are uncomfortable with the mechanics of instant nation building. The SNP has been a brilliant vote-winning machine, but it has never been anywhere near winning independence, and under Alex Salmond it has always pursued a gradualist, incremental approach to self-government, rather than a big bang. And any way you look at it, independence is a leap of faith. They need to bridge the Scottish confidence gap, the psychology of national defeatism.
